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Reviewed article

Context Scenarios in Long-Term Defense Planning

How to cite:
Valeri Ratchev
"Context Scenarios in Long-Term Defense Planning"
Information & Security: An International Journal,
23
no. 1
(2009):
62-72.
http://dx.doi.org/10.11610/isij.2306

Context Scenarios in Long-Term Defense Planning

Source:

Information & Security: An International Journal,
Volume: 23,
Issue1,
p.62-72
(2009)

Abstract:

Recently, a team of Bulgarian analysts proposed a novel long-term planning methodology that envisions a scenario-based, concept-driven, and capa­bilities-oriented planning process intended to provide for robustness in an uncertain security and force development environment. The methodology uses two types of scenarios – context scenarios (or “alternative futures”) and situational scenarios. This article presents a process for designing context scenarios and a summary in­formation on the scenarios developed for use in Bulgaria’s long-term planning process. The proposed approach to the development of context scenarios involves five distinct steps – preparation, strategic base analysis, analysis of the characteris­tics of the future, definition of national security interests’ zones, and development and analysis of context scenarios. A specialized software tool called Intelligent Scenario Computer Interface Program Morphological Analysis/ System Analysis (I-SCIP-MA-SA) was developed to support both the morphological and system analy­ses within the process.

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